Publications

Pathways to Cooperation: A Relational Theory of Rebel Alliance Formation, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2024. Sedef A. Topal.

Why do some rebel organizations form a united front when others confine themselves to a loose partnership? Existing research on rebel movements reveals that insurgents should quickly leave cooperative agreements if doing so will provide particular advantages in a post-conflict setting. Still, rebel groups may build diverse alliances, from joint attacks to shared command structures. If rebels are indeed purely pragmatic, why would they tie themselves to a partnership hindering their ability to defect easily? In this article, I argue that three relational factors shape how armed groups cooperate: rebel-civilian relations (civilian support), inter-rebel relations (partners), and rebel-sponsor relations (external patrons). Groups connected through these social networks will be more likely to join a united opposition with their shared channels of trust. Developing a new dyadic dataset, I find that sharing allies or civilian support is positively associated with forming united fronts. Yet, state sponsorship does not produce similar results.

A Relational Theory of Jihadist Affiliate Behavior: The Case of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, Civil Wars, 2024. Sedef A. Topal.

Why do some AQ and IS affiliates fight one another while others avoid tension or even coordinate? While the extant theories of environment and power balancing provide inroads into such a puzzle, they overlook key relational factors shaping jihadist affiliate behaviour. In this article, I develop a relational theory of AQ-IS interactions, mapping out three avenues of pre-existing social networks: affiliate-civilian, AQ-IS affiliate, and affiliate-unaffiliated rebels. Using several datasets, I examine AQ-IS relations in six regions from 2014 to 2018 with a crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis. Rival affiliates conflict less while relying on civilian support and cooperate more as off-shoots.

Proximate Exposure to Conflict and the Spatiotemporal Correlates of Social Trust. Political Psychology, 2021. Jacob S. Lewis & Sedef A. Topal

How does exposure to conflict events shape social trust? Research in political psychology predicts that conflict exacerbates group divisions, enhancing ingroup solidarities while simultaneously reducing outgroup trust. Experimental research has found support for these predictions, and yet measuring the impact of conflict on trust beyond the laboratory is difficult. For example, questions about the lasting salience of experimental treatments remain a challenge in the study of conflict. We develop an empirical strategy using geocoded individual-level survey data from the Afrobarometer project and geocoded conflict-event data. We draw spatial and temporal buffers around each survey respondent that allow us to test whether proximate exposure to conflict events correlates with lower social trust, as well as how far and long that salience lasts. We find that exposure to conflict reduces generalized and outgroup trust, as predicted. Contrary to our expectations, we find that it reduces ingroup trust. We investigate further and find that ingroup trust suffers most when respondents live in homogenous ethnic enclaves. Furthermore, we advance an argument that the effects of exposure to conflict are mitigated over distance and time. Our results indicate that the effect diminishes over both time and space.

Revise & Resubmit

Rebel Group Mergers: A Marriage of Convenience or Forceful Act, Journal of Peace Research, 2025, Sedef A. Topal

Monographs & Whitepapers

How does exposure to conflict events shape social trust? A spatiotemporal approach. Afrobarometer Working Paper Series, Working Paper No: 189. Jacob S. Lewis & Sedef A. Topal

Under Review

Violence, Trauma, and Trust: Fraught Elections in Authoritarian Regimes, Political Behavior, with Jacob S. Lewis, McDonald Lewanika, Tinotenda Chishiri, and Thulani Mswelanto.

Authorship Patterns in Jihadism Research, with Mark Berlin

Hostage to Fortune? Explaining Kidnapping by Ideological Insurgent Groups, with Ariel Zellman

Work in Progress

Citation Patterns in Jihadism Research, in preparation for submission, with Mark Berlin and Ilayda Onder

Inter-rebel Coalitions: The Rise and Fall of United Fronts, Sedef A. Topal, in preparation for submission

Secret Alliances? The Patterns of Non-Aggression in Multi-party Civil Conflicts, Sedef A. Topal, in preparation for submission

Western Foreign Fighters Involvement: Why Join, Leave, or Shift between Conflicts? Sedef A. Topal, in preparation for submission

Negotiating the Chaos: Ceasefire Dynamics among Rebel Factions in Civil Wars, Sedef A. Topal, in preparation for submission