Publications

Rebel Group Mergers: Security Imperatives and the Autonomy Dilemma, Journal of Peace Research, 2026. Sedef A. Topal

Existing research suggests that rebel group mergers typically force at least one side to abandon its group identity and come under the control of another organization. This loss of autonomy binds a group’s fate to others, undermining its capacity for independent action. Still, some groups merge, either by joining another armed organization or establishing a new one together, even though other forms of alliance, such as joint operations or united fronts, may address their minimum cooperation needs without risking group autonomy. This behavior raises a puzzling question: what leads these groups to merge despite the associated risks? In this study, I examine the conditions under which rebel groups merge rather than rely on alternative alliances. I argue that mergers are more likely when groups face two heightened external threats that require an immediate response: increasing state repression and inter-rebel fighting. Using cross-national dyadic data and a series of multilevel logistic regression models, I find strong support for my main hypotheses. Simultaneous escalations involving state forces, rival rebel organizations, or both make rebel groups more inclined to merge, trading autonomy for greater security.

Pathways to Cooperation: A Relational Theory of Rebel Alliance Formation, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2024. Sedef A. Topal.

Why do some rebel organizations form a united front when others confine themselves to a loose partnership? Existing research on rebel movements reveals that insurgents should quickly leave cooperative agreements if doing so will provide particular advantages in a post-conflict setting. Still, rebel groups may build diverse alliances, from joint attacks to shared command structures. If rebels are indeed purely pragmatic, why would they tie themselves to a partnership hindering their ability to defect easily? In this article, I argue that three relational factors shape how armed groups cooperate: rebel-civilian relations (civilian support), inter-rebel relations (partners), and rebel-sponsor relations (external patrons). Groups connected through these social networks will be more likely to join a united opposition with their shared channels of trust. Developing a new dyadic dataset, I find that sharing allies or civilian support is positively associated with forming united fronts. Yet, state sponsorship does not produce similar results.

A Relational Theory of Jihadist Affiliate Behavior: The Case of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, Civil Wars, 2024. Sedef A. Topal.

Why do some AQ and IS affiliates fight one another while others avoid tension or even coordinate? While the extant theories of environment and power balancing provide inroads into such a puzzle, they overlook key relational factors shaping jihadist affiliate behaviour. In this article, I develop a relational theory of AQ-IS interactions, mapping out three avenues of pre-existing social networks: affiliate-civilian, AQ-IS affiliate, and affiliate-unaffiliated rebels. Using several datasets, I examine AQ-IS relations in six regions from 2014 to 2018 with a crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis. Rival affiliates conflict less while relying on civilian support and cooperate more as off-shoots.

Proximate Exposure to Conflict and the Spatiotemporal Correlates of Social Trust. Political Psychology, 2021. Jacob S. Lewis & Sedef A. Topal

How does exposure to conflict events shape social trust? Research in political psychology predicts that conflict exacerbates group divisions, enhancing ingroup solidarities while simultaneously reducing outgroup trust. Experimental research has found support for these predictions, and yet measuring the impact of conflict on trust beyond the laboratory is difficult. For example, questions about the lasting salience of experimental treatments remain a challenge in the study of conflict. We develop an empirical strategy using geocoded individual-level survey data from the Afrobarometer project and geocoded conflict-event data. We draw spatial and temporal buffers around each survey respondent that allow us to test whether proximate exposure to conflict events correlates with lower social trust, as well as how far and long that salience lasts. We find that exposure to conflict reduces generalized and outgroup trust, as predicted. Contrary to our expectations, we find that it reduces ingroup trust. We investigate further and find that ingroup trust suffers most when respondents live in homogenous ethnic enclaves. Furthermore, we advance an argument that the effects of exposure to conflict are mitigated over distance and time. Our results indicate that the effect diminishes over both time and space.

Revise & Resubmit

Hostage to Fortune? Explaining Kidnapping by Ideological Insurgent Groups, with Ariel Zellman

Authorship Patterns in Jihadism Research, with Mark Berlin

Violence, Trauma, and Trust: Fraught Elections in Authoritarian Regimes, Political Behavior, with Jacob S. Lewis, McDonald Lewanika, Tinotenda Chishiri, and Thulani Mswelanto.

Monographs & Whitepapers

How does exposure to conflict events shape social trust? A spatiotemporal approach. Afrobarometer Working Paper Series, Working Paper No: 189. Jacob S. Lewis & Sedef A. Topal

Under Review

Topal, Sedef A. “Negotiating the Chaos: Ceasefires and Non-aggression agreements among Rebels”

Topal, Sedef A. “Beyond the Battlefield: Political Institutionalization and the Durability of United Rebel Fronts”

Working Papers

Berlin, Mark, and Sedef A. Topal. “Citation Patterns in Jihadism Research” in preparation for submission

Topal, Sedef A. “United but Not Forever, Explaining Exit and Persistence in Rebel Coalitions” in preparation for submission

Topal, Sedef A. “Alliance or Liability? The Strategic Outcomes of Rebel Coalitions” in preparation for submission

Topal, Sedef A. “Secret Alliances? The Patterns of Non-Aggression in Multi-party Civil Conflicts,” in preparation for submission

Topal, Sedef A. “Western Foreign Fighters Involvement: Why Join, Leave, or Shift between Conflicts?” in preparation for submission

Book Projects

United We Stand, Divided We Brawl: Inside the World of Rebel Alliances. To be proposed to academic publishers in the Spring of 2027.

Commentaries

“Evolution from Democracy to Manipulocracy in the Crisis of State Sovereignty.” The American Review of Political Economy, Vol. 13, 1. ISSN 1551-1383, March 2019

“The Role of Nuclear Weapons in International Peace and Security from Neo-Realist Perspective: Iran-US Nuclear Deal.” ICRP, pp. 187-197, ISBN 978-963-12-7822-4, February 2017

“The Future of Europe: Is Europe Moving Forward to Federalism?” JURIST – Legal News and Research Service, the University of Pittsburgh, Professional Commentary, October 2017

“Federalist vs. Intergovernmentalists View of the EU.” JURIST – Legal News and Research Service, the University of Pittsburgh, Student Commentary, September 2017